Reflections on the 2020-2021 Admissions Cycle

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2020 has been a year like no other in the world of college admissions. The biggest change that I have seen during this year's admissions cycle has been the impact of COVID-19 on extracurriculars and standardized testing. While some of my students were fortunate enough to have already taken the SAT or ACT exam prior to the outbreak, the majority of my students have struggled to take one of these tests. Exams were canceled, rescheduled, scheduled, canceled, and rescheduled in a seemingly endless cycle that left most of my students feeling frustrated and stressed out.

Recognizing the struggles of students and the fact that most students were unable to find a safe place to take their ACT or SAT, the overwhelming majority of colleges and universities decided to take bold steps towards going "test optional."

On the surface, this seemed like a decision to be celebrated as it took the pressure off of students and opened up the doors to countless applicants who were worried that their lack of test scores would negatively affect their applications. I felt hopeful as we entered into application season because it meant that my students could seemingly apply without worry.

Admissions Results So Far:

However, as I reflect on the sparse data that is filtering into us from colleges and universities, this decision of schools to go "test optional" has yielded some surprising results in terms of admissions decisions and statistics. Here is just a snippet of the trends and data that I am seeing at the moment:

  • Colleges, especially highly selective colleges with low admissions rates have seen an unprecedented and oftentimes record-breaking surge in applications. Harvard, for example, received a whopping 57% more applicants than the previous year. Brown had 22% more applications, Darmouth had 29% more, Yale had 38% more, and the University of Georgia had 27% more applicants than in previous years. The unrestricted early action applications at MIT rose 62%, a statistic that boggles my mind! At NYU, they received over 100,000 applications, an increase of more than 20% from last year. The list goes on and on, but as you can see, these increases aren't minor increases. They are substantial! My guess is that there are two factors that contributed most heavily to this trend. First, schools going "test optional" opened the door to countless applicants who might not have applied in previous years due to not having favorable test scores. Second, with both students and parents being largely at home due to quarantine measures, I've heard countless reports of students and families feeling as if they had more time to dedicate to college applications and so the number of applications across the board increased.

  • International applications didn’t decline as industry experts predicted. While conventional wisdom in the world of college admissions told us that international applications would decrease substantially this year due to travel restrictions and COVID-19, this wisdom was flipped on its head quickly after election day when Joe Biden was elected into office. Tufts, for example, reported that they got a "flood" of international applications just after the election results were in. Looking back, schools like Tufts have seen a largely unexpected 30% increase in international applications which is completely counter to what most admissions officers were predicting for this year’s round of college applications. According to some news sources, the number of international applicants increased by as much as 11% this year.

  • Many colleges admitted fewer students than they have in the past. While we can only guess why this is the case, I speculate that some schools are accepting students that deferred from the previous year which might be taking admissions slots away from this year's applicants. And, budget cuts and uncertainty in the colleges' futures resulting from COVID-19 might have resulted in fewer acceptances. Yale's early action admissions rate was 3% lower than any of the previous 12 years and UPenn's early decision acceptance rate dropped to a record low of 15% from the previous rate of 19.7% last year. Harvard accepted 148 fewer applicants this year than the previous year and had an ultra-low acceptance rate of 7.4%. With larger pools of applicants and fewer openings available for new students, the admit rates at many colleges this year are at an all-time low.

  • Deferral rates have skyrocketed. While highly selective colleges have deferred students at alarming rates, what's even more troubling is that deferral rates have spiked substantially at schools that would have been considered to be "safety" or "target" schools for students. So, not only are students being deferred in record numbers by top schools this year, but students are also receiving deferrals from schools that would have been an easy acceptance in previous years. It's difficult to speculate on this one, but many professionals who work in admissions are guessing that schools are hesitant to commit as they wait to see whether or not schools will reopening in the fall and they want more time to gauge student's interest. Admissions officers are also reporting that they are simply overwhelmed by the large number of applications, so they have found it necessary to delay/defer admissions decisions in order to buy themselves more time to carefully review applications.

  • While schools have gone "test optional," preliminary data is suggesting that those students who submitted competitive test scores fared far better than their peers. For example, at UPenn, only 24% of admitted ED students didn't have test scores. While most schools have not yet released data on this phenomenon, the trend so far seems to indicate that test scores do matter even though schools are claiming to be "test optional."

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Reflections on the Results

As I reflect on these sobering statistics and trends, here are a few takeaway thoughts that I'd like to share with you:

  • Recognize that negative admissions decisions often have nothing to do with you or your application. It's quite normal for qualified or even overly qualified students to be turned away in droves from selective colleges. Those of us who work in admissions know or have heard stories about dozens or even hundreds of students with perfect 4.0s and 1600 SAT scores who have been rejected by top-20 schools. No matter how qualified a student is, the odds are stacked against them when applying to a school with a single-digit acceptance rate. Students should be aware of these statistics and understand that it is extremely likely that they will be not be offered an acceptance at highly selective schools even under the best circumstances. This annual problem is compounded significantly this year. As a result, it's important to keep a healthy perspective and to remind yourself that you are qualified, you are amazing, and that you do deserve to be at an excellent school. But, the odds, unfortunately, are stacked against you when applying to top-50 schools and negative admissions decisions at these top schools are more often about institutional needs rather than about the qualities and qualifications of the applicants. Remember this if you don't get accepted to a highly competitive program. You probably did everything right and those schools would probably love to send you an acceptance letter, but admissions decisions are complex and are drive (more often than not) by institutional pressures and quotas that do not favor most students.

  • Many are speculating that the massive increase in applications means that admissions officers are overtaxed and overworked. Admissions reps across the board have reported that they are struggling to read so many applications and to give them the attention that they deserve because of the sheer volume of applications they have received this year. While we can only guess, it may mean that admissions decisions could be more random than ever this year since admissions officers simply don't have the time or the resources to carefully scrutinize applications as they have done in the past.

  • College reps are reporting that demonstrated interest is more important than ever this year. So, if there is anything you can do, it is to continue working on your demonstrated interest by doing virtual tours, attending online information sessions, and communicating with admissions officers via email.

  • Think less about rankings and more about fit this year. You've all applied to amazing schools in addition to ultra-competitive schools, so there are still plenty of good options for you out there. Rankings tell us how good someone else thinks a school is, but that doesn't mean that it is the right place for you. So think about fit as you consider your admissions offers and ask yourself where you will truly thrive rather than letting the rejections get you down.

  • Manage your stress and take care of yourself. Getting a negative admissions decision can be a real blow to your self-esteem, so take some time to take care of yourself, get exercise, eat healthily, and work on taking care of your emotional well-being. You are all amazing people, so give yourself the love and care that you deserve.

This data and these trends aren't exactly encouraging. But, rather than discourage you, I hope that this information will help to give a little perspective and give you more reason to celebrate your successes.